balanced risk landscape. In view of uncertainty in
the global environment, the ECB has reiterated its
preference for caution, reserving the option to
recalibrate its monetary policy only in the event
of substantial changes to the outlook.
DEVELOPMENTS IN SPAIN AND
PORTUGAL
SPAIN
The Spanish economy delivered
unexpectedly robust growth.
In 2025, the Spanish economy continued to
outperform. GDP grew by 2.8 %, exceeding initial
forecasts and well above the euro area average.
The expansion was largely mainly by domestic
demand, supported by both private
consumption and investment. The strength of the
labour market played a key role: Social Security
affiliation reached a record high of 21.84 million,
with more than half a million new jobs, while the
unemployment rate continued to drop.
Population growth, supported by migration flows,
boosted employment and consumption. This
was compounded by the decline in interest
rates, which stimulated the real estate market
and business investment, also supported by the
rollout of Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds. By
contrast, net external demand slightly dented
growth: although exports - particularly non-
tourism services - expanded, the increase in
imports, in line with the strength of domestic
demand, offset that effect.
The disinflation path was interrupted in the
second half of the year, such that after reaching
a low of 2.0 % in May, inflation ended the year at
2.9 %, one tenth of a percentage point above the
December 2024 level, driven mainly by the
energy component. Even so, on an annual
average basis, inflation eased to 2.7 % from 2.8 %
the previous year, while core inflation declined to
2.3 % from 2.9 %.
The housing market consolidated a clearly
expansionary phase in 2025 in terms of both
activity and prices, particularly in the first half of
the year. Over the 12 months to November, home
sales were up 13.3 % year-on-year, reaching
around 710,000 transactions, the highest level
since 2008. However, a more subdued trend in
sales began to emerge in the second half of the
year. On the supply side, momentum remains
insufficient to absorb the strength of demand.
New-build permits over the 12 months to
November amounted to 136,000 homes, a figure
below annual net household formation,
estimated at around 226,000. This imbalance
between supply and demand continued to put
upward pressure on prices. The transaction price
index published by the INE picked up to 12.8 % year
on year in the third quarter of 2025, compared
with 8.4 % in 2024. Looking ahead to 2026,
demand is expected to remain consistently high,
while supply will continue to be insufficient to
absorb strong demand and reduce the
accumulated shortfall, which has exceeded
600,000 homes since 2021.
Looking ahead to 2026, CaixaBank Research
expects robust, albeit somewhat more
moderate, growth, with GDP expanding by
slightly more than 2.0 %, constrained by weak
external demand, affected by higher tariffs and
the sluggishness of the main European
economies. Private consumption will remain the
main driver, supported by demographic
dynamism and a strong labour market, while
investment will continue to benefit from
European funds and favourable financing
conditions.
PORTUGAL
Slight slowdown of the Portuguese
economy.
The Portuguese economy recorded a slight
slowdown, with GDP growth of 1.9 %, compared
with 2.1 % in 2024 and 3.1 % in 2023. Even so,
Portugal outperformed the euro area, and its
GDP stands more than 10 % above pre-pandemic
levels, compared with around 6.8% in the euro
area. Growth was underpinned by domestic
demand, driven by private consumption as a
result of higher disposable income and robust
job creation. Investment also picked up over the
year. By contrast, net external demand detracted
from growth: Exports were affected by trade
uncertainty, while imports rallied. For 2026, GDP
growth of close to 2 % is projected, supported by
investment, strong consumer spending, and a
supportive fiscal policy underpinned by public
finances close to balance.